Lord of the flies

Imagine you’re an honest, hard working kid who has been beaten up by the grumpy school captain for three years. Pretend that when you first met him, you admired his knowledge and thought you and he could be friends, but after trying for several years to get into his exclusive lunch circle, the most attention you have ever had from him is his wrath.

Then one day a kid who doesn’t mind copping a bit of his flak comes along and openly challenges him. Then a few others join in and soon it looks like he is about to fall… where do you think human nature would lead you?

As a keen observer of what makes us tick, I predict all those who have been ignored or beaten by the head bully would join together and assist the fall.

Enter Premier Colin Barnett, his “remarkable stable” Cabinet and the throng of eager but ignored backbenchers watching the chink in his armour widening…

I’ve said it before, but just in case I was too verbose – in politics, it’s easier to maintain the support of your colleagues if they like you. And it’s probable that if you irritate too many people, one day when you develop a little hole in your shiny suit, they will, at best sit back and let you fall or worse, join in the fracas and actively help bring you down.

So here we are.

The Premier has been Mr Grumpy Pants for 3 years, shown no faith in his wider team, irritated a lot of people along the way and somehow still thought he had enough friends to impose a candidate for Churchlands on the lay Party.

Something about chickens, roosting…

And his response?

"I think Kate Lamont was clearly the outstanding candidate in that field, some good candidates, but Kate Lamont should have been selected... The people of Churchlands, it’s the adjoining electorate to mine. They are basically Liberal voters. And they have an expectation that the Liberal Party will deliver the highest quality candidate they can into that electorate. And I don’t know that we’ve done that”

Instead of apologising to the candidate to whom he gave false hope and standing up to the outgoing Member, he attacks everyone else. He’s a knowledgeable man, but doesn’t seem to predict human behaviour very well.

Now back to the school yard.

Isn’t it now almost inevitable that all those kids he snubbed will see the chink in his armour and either watch while he falls, or actively contribute to his downfall?

PS. I was wrong in predicting which candidate would get up (because the western suburbs clique isn't as strong as they thought they were), but if you have time re-read the bottom of this article about why the Premier has sprayed the lay-party today: The unholy fight for Churchlands (part 2)

The unholy fight for Churchlands (part 2)

I wanted to write about something totally different today to prove that I'm more than just a one trick pony.

After all, I was in the room when Troy sniffed the chair, saw and heard all sorts of things that happened near the photocopier in the leader of the opposition’s office, saw a few good liberal women get destroyed, and was present when a number of very honourable people like Graham Jacobs were… well, let's just leave it at that.

But unfortunately, all that will have to wait because sadly I have to again write a post that relates to Peter Collier.

Just a side note: Paul Murray was quite correct in this amazing interview with the Minister – I am looking for work. If you are interested in some bold strategic advice, no-bull political commentary or even a guest writer or panel member who will entertain your audience with politically incorrect anecdotes and insights, I'm just a click away! (thank goodness we are getting those prostitution laws soon huh?) :-)

Anyhow, back to the glossy Peter Collier.

For those who asked me why I said the unholy battle for Churchlands would re-open old, very tender Liberal wounds.... Whulla! I give you this news article from the ABC yesterday.

That article doesn’t explain the whole background, but this Stateline transcript from 2005 certainly does.

After reading those articles, you might be inclined to think the allegations resurfaced because ALP Member Martin Whitely has a long memory.... nope! It was front of mind for him yesterday because the now-energy efficient halls of parliament (they auctioned the old power guzzler chandeliers off yesterday - presumably because the Speaker couldn’t afford his power bills like the rest of us) are abuzz with this old, very tender Liberal wound. We are of course talking about this because of the unholy fight for Churchlands.

After I published the unholy fight for Churchlands (part 1), I received an email from a very nice Liberal member who honestly couldn’t understand why I thought the pre-selection battle would get ugly. This person said they were at the State Council meeting and it was all very cordial and pleasant.
The emailer is of course correct but obviously isn’t much of a chess player. Chess, like any game of influence, requires a player to not only see the current state of play, but think about how all the pieces might look in the future.

The fun bit for those of us who are watching from the sidelines is that both Premier Barnett and Peter Collier are pretty good at this.

Here are some important facts to consider when thinking about what will happen next in this pre-selection.

1. Minister Collier holds the majority of the votes in the Curtin division – certainly enough to play a major role in deciding who will win a usual pre-selection process in Churchlands.

2. He supported his new Chief of Staff, and fairly well regarded Young Liberal Richard Wilson, who nominated in the usual way.

3. After pre-selctions closed, the Premier (and his senior media adviser Dixie Marshall) “suggested” to outspoken business-woman Kate Lamont that she put her hand up for a seat.

4. After learning of the Premier’s desire to install Ms Lamont, Collier clique member Senator Mathias Cormann moved a motion at State Council to re-open nominations to facilitate her nomination.

5. Ms Lamont nominated for Churchlands.

6. Peter Collier’s Chief of Staff withdrew his nomination.

7. From out of nowhere, long-serving Party member Jane Timmermanis took the opportunity to also nominate.

To piece all that together is pretty easy – while Peter Collier is definitely a chess player, he is constantly frustrated by others because his moves are just too transparent.

And here’s another relevant fact: generally, he doesn’t think much of women. I know, politically incorrect of me to put that in writing, but everyone knows it. There is so much evidence of misogynistic behaviour, it’s really just not debatable.

Note to the Collier clique: Be all offended and send me nasty emails by all means, but just think of who was behind the demise of recent sitting Liberal women and what is going on in his head when he says stuff like this:

Hon Sally Talbot: Have you  read the report?

Hon PETER COLLIER: Will you be quiet, woman!

Several members interjected.

[Hansard 19 May 2011]

Anyway.

Peter Collier thought he had a lock in supporting his new Chief of Staff Richard Wilson for the presumed safe seat. When it became clear the Premier (and probably the Honourable Liz Constable) wanted a woman in that seat, Peter Collier saw the writing on the wall for his preferred candidate. As quick as a flash, he burnt Richard Wilson (like he has so many others) and started the chess game.
It’s interesting to note that when Sue Walker was undermined and driven from her seat of Nedlands (led by… guess who), the Collier clique supported a nice chap named Bill Marmion – ahead of at least two other qualified women, one of whom was Jane Timmermanis.

Wow! What goes around really does come around in politics. I’m guessing with a little bit of rationalisation from the non-misogynistic Senator Cormann, Peter Collier was convinced that Ms Timmermanis was the best breasted candidate he could find to support in competition to the Premier’s ‘lock’.

So, I reckon the branch level initial vote will be interesting. If Peter Collier has the balls (which is questionable) and hasn’t burned too much political capital with all the insights we have been given as a result of a bit of media scrutiny this week, Jane Timmermanis should win pre-selection with his support.

But here’s where it gets really ugly.

Imagine for a moment you are Kate Lamont.

You’re a strong-willed, self-made, successful entrepreneur who relies heavily on support from wealthy and influential customers (i.e. her businesses need patronage to survive – nothing untoward there). Since working hard to gain that success, you’ve branched out and been politically active – but in a non-partisan way. You’ve picked up government advisory roles with both Labor and Liberal Governments and you’ve played a straight bat, gaining a fair bit of respect for telling it how it is. Importantly, you’ve managed to influence without having to be painted into any corner of the political spectrum and therefore risk losing the support of half of WA’s business community i.e. her target market.

Then one day the Premier and a straight talking, somewhat charming media personality drop in to your restaurant and suggest that you stand for Parliament.

Would you agree to pin a flag to your mast if the offer wasn’t a “guaranteed” seat in Parliament? And would you agree to piss off half your target market unless that offer came with a promise of something more than a $140,000 a year backbench position that doesn’t allow you to even speak in public, let alone influence Cabinet…

Na, either would I. I’m certain the Premier wouldn’t have promised anything like this, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Ms Lamont was left to believe it.

So, if Peter Collier delivers on his alleged powerbroking potential and gets Jane Timmermanis nominated, Kate Lamont will be very, very grumpy that she’s sacrificed so much for so little. And she isn’t shy about expressing her opinion when she’s angry. Nor is Liz Constable, who will no doubt do all she can to ensure any candidate supported by Peter Collier isn’t her replacement.

Eeeek!!!

The only way out of this scenario would be for State Council to over turn Ms Timmermanis’ pre-selection and by then, the Premier will have many, many more reasons to let Peter Collier suffer the consequences of being a powerless powerbroker with a lot of self-made enemies.

The dixie effect (something light for Friday afternoon)

The West Australian’s Inside State column yesterday focussed on the pre-selection battle for Churchlands, but nestled amongst the ‘hard news’ of the story was this line:

“Inside State was told the impetus for Ms Lamont’s interest came when Mr Barnett and his senior media advisor Dixie Marshall, who served with Ms Lamont on the Tourism WA board for several years, had lunch at her Yallingup restaurant in late March while in town for the Margaret River Pro surfing tournament.”

Hmm, I thought. Having previously been the meat caught between a slice of Collier Pane ticinese (See ref 1 below) and Marshall Bubbleloaf (See ref 2 below) I know the Premier’s most senior bugle can be quite persuasive, so I wondered if she had worked her, umm… let’s call it charm, on Mr Barnett.

And on reflection, I think there’s probably enough evidence for me to confirm that our sometimes crusty old Premier has actually been dixied…

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Before the Contract of Dixie (BC) the Premier said: "When did air-conditioning become a necessity of life?"

After being dixied (AD): “That doesn’t mean I don’t make mistakes…I think I’ve been a pretty straight shooter. I don’t try to spin things and tell it how it is and sometimes that gets me in trouble.”

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BC: [To the media] “Sometimes I think World War III could break out and you guys wouldn’t notice.”

AD: Exclusive "puff piece" on Channel Nine News 9 March 2012

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BC: "I don't think members of parliament should turn up with jumpers on, and I think it should be a coat and tie for males and suitable business attire for females" (I can vouch for this – I witnessed him do a press conference in Karratha in high humidity and 40 degree heat wearing a full suit)

AD: Premier Barnett appeared at a mid-morning press conference in the Perth CBD on a Parliamentary sitting day (3 May 2012) without a tie OR jacket!!

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BC: "Be realistic about your expectations and be prepared to buy a fairly humble property first off and gradually work your way up as you go through life and your income increases.”

AD: “You’re not going to get political correctness out of me, I’ll say it how it is.”

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BC: [a former Minister] “…I suggest he give the member for Vasse a kick in the nuts before he hits him in the head! [Mr BARNETT] “Mr Speaker, that is highly inappropriate”

AD: “This email shows the director of media doing her job,” he said. “This is what she is meant to be doing — co-ordinating the government message, communicating with her team. The email proves she goes about her business broadly, positively, and with good humour. OK, she occasionally says a swear word. She was, after all, a journalist for more than 25 years. Dixie has promised me she will never ever, ever, ever swear again in emails.”

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A lot of people have been quite critical of Dixie Marshall in her new role, but you have to give her this – she’s managed to exert significant influence over one of the most strong-willed, headstrong men I’ve ever come across.


Notes:

Ref 1: Pane ticinese is a soft dough Swiss bread that is all white, strengthened by several small sub-loaves or rolls.

Ref 2: Bubbleloaf is a gooey pastry from Africa that sticks to the roof of your mouth, usually served as a treat because it is considered too rich for daily consumption.

The unholy fight for Churchlands (part 1)

As Gary Adshead and Gareth Parker wrote in The West Australian newspaper on Tuesday and today, the Liberal pre-selection process for the much coveted seat of Churchlands has taken some interesting turns.

They were insightful articles but I thought I might be able to put just a bit more meat on the bone for QBF readers.

As we know from Messrs Adshead and Parker, the consequence of delaying the pre-selection so the Premier’s preferred candidate Kate Lamont could join the party and nominate caused two other changes in the line-up. The current Chief of Staff to Minister Peter Collier withdrew his nomination and long-time Party member and - not to put too finer point on it, female - Jane Timmermanis elected to join the contest.

The reference to gender isn’t subtle but sadly, it’s important. I really wish it wasn’t a factor, but as the Premier said on ABC radio yesterday, the WA Parliamentary Liberal Party desperately needs more women and that is why he asked the Party to “bend the rules” to facilitate the late nomination of Kate Lamont. The other reason is of course, whoever wins the Liberal pre-selection will have a much smoother ride if they come with the blessing of pro-women-in-Parliament and close friend of Premier Barnett, outgoing Minister Liz Constable.

Just as an aside, I’m all for equal rights. But my big point here is being elected to Parliament isn’t a right – it’s a privilege. Any attempt to artificially bias the gender balance is in my mind, a corruption of our democratic process. If there aren’t enough women who actually want to stand for so-called “safe” seats like Churchlands, I suggest bending rules and making promises to a celebrity non-member might go someway toward addressing the symptom but only adds to the underlying cause. A much more sustainable solution for the Premier, and one that I suggest would attract bipartisan support, would to be address the family-unfriendly nature of the big house on the hill, but that's fodder for another post on another day.

The saddest thing about what is happening in the pre-selection for Churchlands is that no one will ever be sure that the person who eventually secures the Party’s endorsement did so because they were the best person for the job or if their 'winning edge' was merely their lack of penis. Worse still, other solid potential candidates, such as Mr Bruce Butcher, will probably be asked to withdraw his nomination in the next few days and neither the Liberal Party nor Parliament will ever get a chance to benefit from his unique and valuable skillset.

Anyway, let's move on and just accept that gender is a prerequisite for Liberal pre-selection in Churchlands this time around. The big question - will it be the high-profile, new member and strong-willed businesswoman Kate Lamont or the very long-term, loyal party member and partner of the head of the liberal policy committee, Jane Timmermanis?

My guess is Kate Lamont, but the path the Party will take to eventually arrive at that decision will be bloody and open a number of old, very tender wounds.

Part two soon - gotta go to an antenatal class.

Power Minister’s powerbroking powers broken

“Thank you for your application. Although it was of a very high standard, the Board has decided to extend the deadline and re-advertise to fill the position. To be clear, you are still being considered and are highly competitive - you may be contacted for an interview after applications close.”

Yeah right! If you wanted me for the job, why would you waste time and money re-advertising?

If, like me, you’ve ever received one of these pseudo-rejection letters as a job hunter, you’ve probably got some empathy for those Liberal Party members who nominated for the highly coveted State seat of Churchlands.

You see, on Saturday the WA Liberal Party’s State Council confirmed more candidates to run for various seats at the March 2013 election. However, despite a number of long-term Liberals having already put up their hand for Churchlands, where Independent Liz Constable will retire after 22 years, the Council decided to delay the decision and re-open nominations.

There’s all sorts of spin they can put on a move like this: we want to make the process as competitive as possible and therefore need more time to get (even more) candidates; since there is an incumbent government Minister in that seat it’s not that important to select the candidate early; given one of the candidates is a Ministerial Chief of Staff, we want to delay it as long as possible so he can stay in that position without a perceived conflict of interest…

Whatever the official line, it has to be said that it looks a lot like none of these candidates, who followed due process and nominated within the allowed time, ticked all the boxes required by someone above. It really is hard to argue that the decision to re-open nominations amounts to nothing more than a rejection of those loyal nominees in favour of a preferred latecomer.

And it’s no secret that latecomer is the Premier’s choice - long time critic and recent member of the Liberal Party, Chairman of Tourism WA and promoter of Bali, Sydney and France as holiday destinations, bolshy local restaurateur Kate Lamont. Whether or not this qualifies Ms Lamont to occupy a safe Liberal seat in Parliament is a matter for the State Council in a couple of week’s time, but the way this has happened raises a couple of broader issues worthy of comment from the QBF.
The first is the wisdom of the Premier being tied to the process anomaly.

If it is true that Ms Lamont is being parachuted in by the Premier, it’s probably for two very worthy reasons:

1. Ms Lamont is a woman and the Liberal Party is very thin on the ground for women in the Lower House; and
2. Ms Lamont will have the blessing of the outgoing, strong-willed friend of the Premier, Minister Liz Constable.

The gender issue is a no-brainer. The Liberal Party needs to do whatever it can to improve its female voter-base and that’s nearly impossible with so many crusty old men (and bra-snapping younger ones) on the front line.

The second point hasn’t been raised in the public sphere, but Minister Constable’s endorsement of the candidate is absolutely essential to a Liberal victory. If the very highly regarded current local Member Liz Constable (Minister Constable got a whopping 67.30% of the primary vote in 2008) didn’t like the Liberal candidate and decided to throw her support behind another, presumably independent candidate, the seat could very easily remain in the hands of an unaligned Member – and perhaps one that is not as Liberal-friendly as Liz Constable.

Liz Constable is a solid friend of the Premier, so presumably if Kate Lamont is being dropped in with the Premier’s support, she also has the blessing of the current Member.

But the loudest message sent by the State Council on Saturday is that Peter Collier is not the “powerbroker” he is often alleged to be.

Despite Mr Collier’s relentless behind-the-scenes cajoling and conspiring to “control the numbers” required to determine the outcome of pre-selections in all of the western suburbs electorates, what is obvious from this is that he simply doesn’t have the courage to go head-to-head with the Premier.

Mr Collier has his own preferred candidate for Churchlands - and it’s not Kate Lamont. Mr Collier’s choice is a fine young man who is a long-term supporter of the Party, very active and loyal to a fault. He followed due process in nominating for Churchlands within the prescribed time and hasn’t particularly upset any powerful figures within the Party nor has he been involved in any major external controversy. Other than not being a woman, on paper he looks like the perfect Liberal candidate for Churchlands.

And yet on Saturday, the Party snubbed Mr Collier’s preferred candidate to facilitate the late nomination of Mr Barnett’s – even though in theory Mr Collier controls the numbers to stitch-up Churchlands and even overturn Mr Barnett’s pre-selection for Cottesloe.

This, on top of Mr Barnett’s very public humiliation of Peter Collier in 2008 when he inexplicably took the Education portfolio away from him, would make any fan of the Godfather or West Wing think the puppet master would initiate a swift and bloody retaliation.

However, those who know the man behind the “powerbroker” tag also know that payback will consist of little more than a bunch of bitchy text messages to and from his troupe of fine young supporters and if things get really heated, possibly a new nickname for the Premier.

How deeply disappointing that courage isn't a prerequisite for candidacy.