Check this out from today’s West Australian Newspaper – Windsor calls for mine tax cash for bush.
It looks like future MHR Brendon Grylls might have the
rug pulled from his plan to lead a Royalties for Regions balance-of-power block
vote after the next Federal election.
In Run Brendon, run (not for Forrest),
I predicted that Mr Grylls will take his bold, “I’ll form government with any
majority party as long as they promise to adopt our RfR policy” attitude to
Federal Parliament as the Member for Pearce next year after losing his bid for the
State seat of Pilbara.
However, given that the current balance-of-power Member for New England Tony Windsor reportedly said yesterday, "Why shouldn't a bit of the MRRT
go to regional areas," Mr Grylls might find a version of his Royalties for
Regions plan already in place before he has a chance to get to Canberra and take
the credit he personally deserves.
Watch this space...
Showing posts with label Pilbara. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pilbara. Show all posts
Friday, April 20, 2012
Friday, March 9, 2012
Labor call spells end to cordial Lib-Nat relations
Daniel Emerson’s report in the West Australian Newspaper (McGowan vows no deal with the Nats) marks the beginning of the end for the Royalties for Regions scheme as we know it. Today’s publication of Labor leader Mark McGowan’s pledge that he “would not govern with the Nationals under any circumstance” will kick off a very ugly feud between the WA Liberals and their current “partners” in Government, the Nationals.
Mr McGowan’s courageous declaration will be music to the ears of many Liberal MP’s who have quietly cursed and muttered obscenities under their breath since their leader signed an unconventional partnership agreement with the Nationals in 2008. A number of senior Liberals firmly believe that Colin Barnett conceded far too much in agreeing to the quantum and autonomous nature of the Royalties for Regions scheme.
Basically, Liberal Ministers and backbenchers alike have spent the last three years trying to sell the difficult message that they can’t afford to spend money in their local electorates because of our burgeoning state debt liability. Meanwhile their Nationals colleagues have been traversing the State in the comfy leather seats of the Government jet, handing out RfR branded t-shirts and balloons and granting wishes to anyone who was prepared to hail King Brendon and his royal guard.
Now that Mr McGowan has publicly doused the bridge to the Nationals with fuel and thrown a lit match, the Premier will come under extremely strong pressure from his parched Liberal subordinates to radically reduce the RfR commitment and loosen the purse strings for some Liberal-led initiatives.
At the same time, the Nationals’ bargaining power has been all but decimated by Mr McGowan’s promise to not negotiate with them to form a Government. The guts of it is that the Nationals’ Leader Brendan Grylls had everyone over a barrel at the last election – no one could form a Government without the support of the Nationals and under Mr Grylls’ leadership, no one was going to get their support without agreeing to the currently unsustainable and somewhat irresponsible partisan political cash-cow known as Royalties for Regions. This time around, he won't have the ability to coax the Liberals into a bidding war against Labor - the Nationals will have no alternative but to agree to whatever is offered.
So what will happen now?
Metropolitan Liberal MP’s will think this is a golden opportunity to claw back some money for election promises in their local areas and as of today, start vigorously vocalising that view to the Premier and his bumbling bureaucratic office.
The brash and brave Mr Grylls I described in a previous blog (Pilbara play proof Lib-Nat partnership a mistake) will be loudly banging his RfR drum in the Pilbara using any suggestion by Colin Barnett to change the scheme as the principal reason country voters - including those in the other Labor-held seats of Kimberley, Albany and Collie-Preston - have only one choice in 2013 if they want the regional spending spree to continue. And for those country voters, it’s a compelling case.
Regardless of Colin Barnett’s newest arbitrary and bizarre morale high-ground of “not campaigning during this election year”, he is going to have to. On the back of the Labor Party’s clever declaration for all-or-nothing, the Premier will be either drawn into a head-to-head fight with Brendan Grylls on regional funding or eventually get rolled by his increasingly frustrated Party room colleagues who will be desperately hoping the new guy will listen to the concerns of Mr Barnett’s under-appreciated and repressed backbench soldiers.
The only possible way out this inevitable mess for Mr Barnett is some very unlikely charm and nimble negotiating to stitch up a formal coalition with the Nationals right now.
Mr McGowan’s courageous declaration will be music to the ears of many Liberal MP’s who have quietly cursed and muttered obscenities under their breath since their leader signed an unconventional partnership agreement with the Nationals in 2008. A number of senior Liberals firmly believe that Colin Barnett conceded far too much in agreeing to the quantum and autonomous nature of the Royalties for Regions scheme.
Basically, Liberal Ministers and backbenchers alike have spent the last three years trying to sell the difficult message that they can’t afford to spend money in their local electorates because of our burgeoning state debt liability. Meanwhile their Nationals colleagues have been traversing the State in the comfy leather seats of the Government jet, handing out RfR branded t-shirts and balloons and granting wishes to anyone who was prepared to hail King Brendon and his royal guard.
Now that Mr McGowan has publicly doused the bridge to the Nationals with fuel and thrown a lit match, the Premier will come under extremely strong pressure from his parched Liberal subordinates to radically reduce the RfR commitment and loosen the purse strings for some Liberal-led initiatives.
At the same time, the Nationals’ bargaining power has been all but decimated by Mr McGowan’s promise to not negotiate with them to form a Government. The guts of it is that the Nationals’ Leader Brendan Grylls had everyone over a barrel at the last election – no one could form a Government without the support of the Nationals and under Mr Grylls’ leadership, no one was going to get their support without agreeing to the currently unsustainable and somewhat irresponsible partisan political cash-cow known as Royalties for Regions. This time around, he won't have the ability to coax the Liberals into a bidding war against Labor - the Nationals will have no alternative but to agree to whatever is offered.
So what will happen now?
Metropolitan Liberal MP’s will think this is a golden opportunity to claw back some money for election promises in their local areas and as of today, start vigorously vocalising that view to the Premier and his bumbling bureaucratic office.
The brash and brave Mr Grylls I described in a previous blog (Pilbara play proof Lib-Nat partnership a mistake) will be loudly banging his RfR drum in the Pilbara using any suggestion by Colin Barnett to change the scheme as the principal reason country voters - including those in the other Labor-held seats of Kimberley, Albany and Collie-Preston - have only one choice in 2013 if they want the regional spending spree to continue. And for those country voters, it’s a compelling case.
Regardless of Colin Barnett’s newest arbitrary and bizarre morale high-ground of “not campaigning during this election year”, he is going to have to. On the back of the Labor Party’s clever declaration for all-or-nothing, the Premier will be either drawn into a head-to-head fight with Brendan Grylls on regional funding or eventually get rolled by his increasingly frustrated Party room colleagues who will be desperately hoping the new guy will listen to the concerns of Mr Barnett’s under-appreciated and repressed backbench soldiers.
The only possible way out this inevitable mess for Mr Barnett is some very unlikely charm and nimble negotiating to stitch up a formal coalition with the Nationals right now.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Pilbara play proof Lib-Nat partnership a mistake
The Premier’s “take a cold shower” comment to WA Nationals Leader Brendon Grylls this week is symptomatic not only of Mr Barnett’s tendency to highlight his superiority complex on talkback radio but also of a very messy, imminent problem for the wider government.
Of course, Mr Barnett would say that he was just trying to give some well-meaning advice to a valued friend and colleague, but his warning to Mr Grylls’ over his decision to run for the Labor-held seat of Pilbara at the next election runs much deeper than friendly advice. Quite simply, the Liberal Party will do all it can to stop the Nationals getting another seat in the Legislative Assembly, including that of retiring Labor MP Tom Stephens.
The Nationals have a well-earned reputation in Mr Grylls’ current electorate of Central Wheatbelt so they should retain that seat regardless of the candidate – be it current Upper House Member Mia Davies or anyone else. The threat to the Liberal Party is if Mr Grylls wins the seat of Pilbara, the Nationals will extend their size (and influence) in the Lower House and presumably increase their ability to manipulate Government spending in the next term.
Mr Grylls obviously believes his personal star power combined with the bucket loads of money the Government has spent in the Pilbara thanks to “his” Royalties for Regions scheme will deliver the seat to the Nationals. However, given the outright hatred the Labor Party holds toward the Nationals in that part of the world and their desperation to win Fremantle back from the Independent former Green MP Adele Carles, the Labor Party is likely to do a preference deal with the Liberal Party to disadvantage the Nationals in Pilbara. Unless Mr Grylls secures more than 50% of the primary vote, that deal would just about guarantee he will lose his seat in Parliament come 2013 and the Liberal Party will pick up Pilbara from Tom Stephens.
Mr Barnett wasn’t offering friendly advice - he was suggesting a threat to Mr Grylls’ Parliamentary career.
Both the Royalties for Regions program and Brendon Grylls himself have been problematic for Colin Barnett. There is wide discontent among his Liberal Cabinet colleagues who are often forced to go cap-in-hand to the much wealthier Nationals Ministers to effectively beg for money to fund their pet projects. And the current National team play hard-ball politics with who gets what. Consequently, the Premier is under growing pressure to reduce the proportion of Government spending controlled by the Nationals who would undoubtedly argue for the status quo or even more and if they were to secure another Lower House seat in the next Government.
In terms of Brendon Grylls the man, the Premier, who is hell-bent on trying to develop his image as a wise and considered statesman, is often frustrated by the brash impatience and naked ambition of his younger Nationals counterpart. In EERC meetings, where Ministers and their Department heads pitch to a star chamber of senior Ministers for funding, Mr Grylls is vocal, animated and often showers the room with expletives when he perceives a funding request to be poorly considered or not in the political interest of the government.
Conversely Mr Barnett, who as Premier made reinstating a jacket and tie dress code for Parliament one of his first orders of business, likes to play it cool and mull quietly in the corner leaving others to jump up and down in what he considers, an undignified manner.
But the tensions in the Liberal-National partnership are much deeper than dress-codes and unparliamentry langauge.
Mr Grylls has often upstaged Mr Barnett’s life-long ambition to run a professional, moderate bureaucracy. The urgency inherent in 39 year old Mr Grylls means he IS prepared to occasionally throw the baby out with the bathwater if it means reaching his short-term goal. As someone who has come so far aching with ambition to conquer the summit, he is often frustrated to be blocked at the top by someone who must appear to him as a boring father-figure. His Gen X risk-taking mentality has paid enormous dividends for the kid from the bush with a cruel lisp and the decision to have a stab at the seat of Pilbara underscores his “if you’re going to go out, go out with a bang” approach to politics.
His supposed ally, but true nemesis in his race to the top of the hill is the slow-moving, overly cautious, bureaucratic Colin Barnett. Mr Barnett wants to be remembered as an academic who put good public policy ahead of political ambition. He longs to be remembered as a modern-day Charles Court and with his new-found enthusiasm for the Queen, probably wouldn’t mind following Sir Charles into a knighthood either. Consequently, he tries to keep bad news away from the front page at all cost and is desperate to ensure his leadership is not connected to anything other than full and proper process – something Mr Grylls is happy to at least partially sacrifice in order to get a timely outcome.
Mr Barnett’s philosophical approach to government is diametrically opposed to that of Mr Grylls. And the differences between the men are reflected in the mood of the parties they lead. The National Party has a can-do attitude and is keen to make the changes they want now, even if it inflicts a bit of short-term pain. The Western Australian Parliamentary Liberal Party is defensive and reactive. To use the Premier’s own analogy, his team is batting, not bowling – and it looks like he thinks it’s a test match, not Twenty20.
The fight over the Pilbara will be a high profile and somewhat destructive battle for the Liberal-National partnership but unless someone smart negotiates a formal coalition agreement ASAP, the broader differences between the parties and their respective leaders will cause a much greater chasm in any future alliance.
PS. Paige Talor from the Australian Newspaper followed this up with a great article published on 3 March 2012. You can read that here
Of course, Mr Barnett would say that he was just trying to give some well-meaning advice to a valued friend and colleague, but his warning to Mr Grylls’ over his decision to run for the Labor-held seat of Pilbara at the next election runs much deeper than friendly advice. Quite simply, the Liberal Party will do all it can to stop the Nationals getting another seat in the Legislative Assembly, including that of retiring Labor MP Tom Stephens.
The Nationals have a well-earned reputation in Mr Grylls’ current electorate of Central Wheatbelt so they should retain that seat regardless of the candidate – be it current Upper House Member Mia Davies or anyone else. The threat to the Liberal Party is if Mr Grylls wins the seat of Pilbara, the Nationals will extend their size (and influence) in the Lower House and presumably increase their ability to manipulate Government spending in the next term.
Mr Grylls obviously believes his personal star power combined with the bucket loads of money the Government has spent in the Pilbara thanks to “his” Royalties for Regions scheme will deliver the seat to the Nationals. However, given the outright hatred the Labor Party holds toward the Nationals in that part of the world and their desperation to win Fremantle back from the Independent former Green MP Adele Carles, the Labor Party is likely to do a preference deal with the Liberal Party to disadvantage the Nationals in Pilbara. Unless Mr Grylls secures more than 50% of the primary vote, that deal would just about guarantee he will lose his seat in Parliament come 2013 and the Liberal Party will pick up Pilbara from Tom Stephens.
Mr Barnett wasn’t offering friendly advice - he was suggesting a threat to Mr Grylls’ Parliamentary career.
Both the Royalties for Regions program and Brendon Grylls himself have been problematic for Colin Barnett. There is wide discontent among his Liberal Cabinet colleagues who are often forced to go cap-in-hand to the much wealthier Nationals Ministers to effectively beg for money to fund their pet projects. And the current National team play hard-ball politics with who gets what. Consequently, the Premier is under growing pressure to reduce the proportion of Government spending controlled by the Nationals who would undoubtedly argue for the status quo or even more and if they were to secure another Lower House seat in the next Government.
In terms of Brendon Grylls the man, the Premier, who is hell-bent on trying to develop his image as a wise and considered statesman, is often frustrated by the brash impatience and naked ambition of his younger Nationals counterpart. In EERC meetings, where Ministers and their Department heads pitch to a star chamber of senior Ministers for funding, Mr Grylls is vocal, animated and often showers the room with expletives when he perceives a funding request to be poorly considered or not in the political interest of the government.
Conversely Mr Barnett, who as Premier made reinstating a jacket and tie dress code for Parliament one of his first orders of business, likes to play it cool and mull quietly in the corner leaving others to jump up and down in what he considers, an undignified manner.
But the tensions in the Liberal-National partnership are much deeper than dress-codes and unparliamentry langauge.
Mr Grylls has often upstaged Mr Barnett’s life-long ambition to run a professional, moderate bureaucracy. The urgency inherent in 39 year old Mr Grylls means he IS prepared to occasionally throw the baby out with the bathwater if it means reaching his short-term goal. As someone who has come so far aching with ambition to conquer the summit, he is often frustrated to be blocked at the top by someone who must appear to him as a boring father-figure. His Gen X risk-taking mentality has paid enormous dividends for the kid from the bush with a cruel lisp and the decision to have a stab at the seat of Pilbara underscores his “if you’re going to go out, go out with a bang” approach to politics.
His supposed ally, but true nemesis in his race to the top of the hill is the slow-moving, overly cautious, bureaucratic Colin Barnett. Mr Barnett wants to be remembered as an academic who put good public policy ahead of political ambition. He longs to be remembered as a modern-day Charles Court and with his new-found enthusiasm for the Queen, probably wouldn’t mind following Sir Charles into a knighthood either. Consequently, he tries to keep bad news away from the front page at all cost and is desperate to ensure his leadership is not connected to anything other than full and proper process – something Mr Grylls is happy to at least partially sacrifice in order to get a timely outcome.
Mr Barnett’s philosophical approach to government is diametrically opposed to that of Mr Grylls. And the differences between the men are reflected in the mood of the parties they lead. The National Party has a can-do attitude and is keen to make the changes they want now, even if it inflicts a bit of short-term pain. The Western Australian Parliamentary Liberal Party is defensive and reactive. To use the Premier’s own analogy, his team is batting, not bowling – and it looks like he thinks it’s a test match, not Twenty20.
The fight over the Pilbara will be a high profile and somewhat destructive battle for the Liberal-National partnership but unless someone smart negotiates a formal coalition agreement ASAP, the broader differences between the parties and their respective leaders will cause a much greater chasm in any future alliance.
PS. Paige Talor from the Australian Newspaper followed this up with a great article published on 3 March 2012. You can read that here
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